Senior Jalisco officials are correct in saying this state has largely escaped the violence afflicting other parts of Mexico over the past two to three years.
Nonetheless, incidents of drug-cartel-related killings, as well as shoot-outs involving police, have increased in the state in the past six weeks.
The violence almost exclusively involves rival cartels with little evidence here in Jalisco that the wider public is in much danger. During the last month, 21 decapitated or mutilated bodies have been dumped in the Guadalajara metropolitan area, the vast majority, if not all, males aged 20 and upward.
Last week, State Police Chief Carlos Najera referred to the killings as “an internal war between drug cartels.” He went on to say that maintaining the peace “doesn’t depend on us” and that “at any moment innocent people could be affected.” His remarks appear to have been off-the-cuff, but may have prompted the U.S. Consulate General this week to issue a warden message on the violence to expatriate citizens living in the region that could further complicate bilateral relations (see story page one).
“Narco-messages” displayed prominently this week near the University of Guadalajara’s Science and Humanities campus asked Jalisco Governor Emilio Gonzalez to allow an alliance of cartels to go after Los Zetas, who they blame for the rise in kidnappings and extortions, as well as the most brutal murders of the drug war.
Exactly the same process took place in Monterrey. Late last year, the Sinaloa Cartel, the Gulf Cartel and La Familia from Michoacan, signed a pact to work together in confronting the Zetas. During the last two months, the two factions have been battling it out in Mexico’s business capital. The existence of the alliance has been recognized by the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency.
The same pattern appears to be occurring in Jalisco, and especially Guadalajara, albeit to a lesser extent.
In another take on the situation, Jalisco Attorney General Tomas Coronado believes the violence may continue until one of Jalisco’s local cartels, Los Valencia, finds a new leader. Oscar “El Lobo” Valenica, the cartel’s jefe, has been under arrest since last year.
“There’ll be more (violence) until the space in the leadership is covered,” Coronado predicted this week.
To put the recent killings in perspective, there have been under 200 murders this year in Jalisco, a state with a population of around seven million people.
Although the murders and the mutilations are shocking, it’s worth remembering that Jalisco still has a lower murder rate than the vast majority of U.S. states and Guadalajara has a lower rate than most equivalent-sized U.S. cities.
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